Hot.

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#1 Jun 12, 2017 11:13am
nuraman00
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Jun 14, 2017 2:16pm
nuraman00
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No thoughts about hands that are hot?

Jul 24, 2017 10:52am
nuraman00
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I thought it was an interesting article.  Did anyone else?

Jul 24, 2017 10:54am
MadFlabby
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I only clicked because I thought i was going to see a hot chick.  I don't give a shit about the Warriors or Heat.

 

 

Jul 24, 2017 11:45am
nuraman00
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It's not about the Warriors or the Heat.  It's about whether there is statistically such a thing as the hot hand.

Jul 24, 2017 2:10pm
ClipperSisyphus
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MadFlabby wrote:

I only clicked because I thought i was going to see a hot chick.  I don't give a shit about the Warriors or Heat.

 

 

Here you go:


Jul 24, 2017 2:42pm
nuraman00
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What are some other fruits or vegetables that one can place over the nipples?

Jul 24, 2017 5:34pm
tullabye
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nuraman00 wrote:

What are some other fruits or vegetables that one can place over the nipples?

Cmon nuraman, that's a bit much...even from you!

Jul 24, 2017 6:50pm
nuraman00
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tullabye wrote:

nuraman00 wrote:

What are some other fruits or vegetables that one can place over the nipples?

Cmon nuraman, that's a bit much...even from you!

 

Well, what do you think about the hot hand article, and how these guys now say it exists?

Jul 25, 2017 7:32am
Dyce
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MadFlabby wrote:

I only clicked because I thought i was going to see a hot chick.  I don't give a shit about the Warriors or Heat.

Jul 25, 2017 7:41am
Mistwell
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The Hot Hand absolutely exists, though it exists in all things and not just basketball. It used to be called "Getting into the Zone". I remember every once in a blue moon I'd do it with arcade games, where I just could do no wrong and could play forever until I got bored or my hands started to cramp. 

Does anyone remember that game of Clippers vs Lakers, where Corey Maggettee got a hot hand? Lakers (mostly Kobe) kept daring him to shoot from beyond the arc.And so he did, and they just went in, over and over and over again. WAY beyond his normal three point shooting rate at that point in his career. It was like magic. 

Jul 25, 2017 8:32am
tullabye
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Is there any dispute that a player can get it going? Of course not. Hot hand, in the zone or whatever you want to call it, it's real. 

Jul 25, 2017 9:23am
Mistwell
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tullabye wrote:

Is there any dispute that a player can get it going? Of course not. Hot hand, in the zone or whatever you want to call it, it's real. 

Yes, there is a dispute about that. See here

Jul 25, 2017 10:07am
tullabye
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Mistwell wrote:

tullabye wrote:

Is there any dispute that a player can get it going? Of course not. Hot hand, in the zone or whatever you want to call it, it's real. 

Yes, there is a dispute about that. See here

Yes...I guess anything can be disputed.

Jul 25, 2017 11:13am
nuraman00
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Hence the point of the article.

 

The way people were looking at shooting before, showed players shot worse after a make compared to their normal FG%.

 

Then this article says it was a matter of selection bias.  From what I understand, the article is saying to look at not just the preceding shot, but the string of preceding makes.  (Such as 3 straight makes).

 

But I am not sure, as this seems conflicting to me:

 

Quote:

"So if we tell you to look at Steph Curry's shooting records for the 3-point contest and pick out one of his shots that is preceded by three hits in a row, that shot is more likely to be a miss than his ability would suggest."

The implication is huge: If Curry is statistically less likely to make a shot after a string of makes (46 percent), then even shooting 50 percent is evidence of the hot hand.

 

This again seems to say to me that he misses more after after a string of makes than his normal FG%.

 

So, I'm hoping someone else reads this article and posts their understanding of it.  Did anyone else read it?

 

@Mistwell?  @JGlanton?  @Corkscrew?  @Dyce?  @ClipsAhoy?

 

 

Jul 25, 2017 11:12am
nuraman00
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Double post.

Jul 25, 2017 12:26pm
dane
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I thought there was a study done a few years back showing that cases of the "hot hand" were  no more than the statistical operation of chance.  (Even a 50% shooter will have moments of the hot hand, just as a coin flip will have a series of heads, and also a series of tails; a 60% shooter will have more of them; a 40% shooter will have far fewer).).   As for our own being in the zone--sure, we've all experienced that.  But the question is, do we feel "I'm in the zone," and THEN hit, say, a series of drives all 220-250 straight down the fairway?  Or do we, by chance , hit three or four of those in a row and THEN say, "Right.  I'm so in the zone ..."   (i.e., the feeling of being in the zone is simply our reaction to a series of chance events).    (I'll try to find that study--Seems to me its focus was on Larry Bird?)

Jul 25, 2017 12:35pm
nuraman00
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Here's the 2015 research paper on the study a few years ago:

 

You can download the full paper.

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2611987

Jul 25, 2017 12:38pm
nuraman00
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Jul 25, 2017 12:39pm
nuraman00
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Jul 25, 2017 12:41pm
dane
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http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/08/how-researchers-discovered-the-basketball-hot-hand.html

This one too.  I guess this refutes me.  My mind is still reeling from the coin-flip analysis, which I'll have to review again.  I think there's another logical fallacy built in to the seemingly innocent assumption:  let's take a series of four coin-flips ...   Not sure.

One thing that is irrefutable is that cold spells  or slumps exist:  and once you feel you can't hit the broad side of a freaking barn, you have damn little chance of doing so.  Alas, we've all experienced that as well.   It would be pretty hard statistically to dismiss them ("I'm going to eliminate all cases where a batter strikes out 10 times in a row ...") and try to study hot streaks in isolation.

Jul 25, 2017 1:05pm
Olowokandi34
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Hot hand is definitely real.  I can snipe 10 head shots in a row in Halo once in a long while and you just know you are in the zone.

I've played in various rec leagues since 2005 and I've gotten hot only a few times.  I remember one game I had hit 4 3s in a row, then my teammates knew I was heating up and kept feeding me the ball and I hit maybe 3 or 4 more 3s in a row.  I think 7 or 8 3s in a row, I was on fire.  It is a great feeling because I hardley shoot 3s, maybe 1 or 2 at most per game. 

Jul 25, 2017 2:31pm
nuraman00
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dane wrote:

http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/08/how-researchers-discovered-the-basketball-hot-hand.html

This one too.  I guess this refutes me.  My mind is still reeling from the coin-flip analysis, which I'll have to review again.  I think there's another logical fallacy built in to the seemingly innocent assumption:  let's take a series of four coin-flips ...   Not sure.

One thing that is irrefutable is that cold spells  or slumps exist:  and once you feel you can't hit the broad side of a freaking barn, you have damn little chance of doing so.  Alas, we've all experienced that as well.   It would be pretty hard statistically to dismiss them ("I'm going to eliminate all cases where a batter strikes out 10 times in a row ...") and try to study hot streaks in isolation.

 

I don't think they're eliminating hot or cold streaks.  It's just a matter of how do we evaluate what happens right after a string of makes or misses?

 

Do we look at just the next shot?

 

And how far back do we look?  Do we look at just the previous shot?  The previous consecutive string of makes or misses?

Jul 25, 2017 2:37pm
nuraman00
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dane wrote:

http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/08/how-researchers-discovered-the-basketball-hot-hand.html

This one too.  I guess this refutes me.  My mind is still reeling from the coin-flip analysis, which I'll have to review again.  I think there's another logical fallacy built in to the seemingly innocent assumption:  let's take a series of four coin-flips ...   Not sure.

One thing that is irrefutable is that cold spells  or slumps exist:  and once you feel you can't hit the broad side of a freaking barn, you have damn little chance of doing so.  Alas, we've all experienced that as well.   It would be pretty hard statistically to dismiss them ("I'm going to eliminate all cases where a batter strikes out 10 times in a row ...") and try to study hot streaks in isolation.

 

Thanks for this article.  This one specifically mentions taking into account SportsVU data, which I don't think previous papers were.

 

And it's attempting to assign a difficulty level to shots from SportsVU.

Jul 25, 2017 2:37pm
nuraman00
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Jul 25, 2017 2:49pm
nuraman00
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Quote:

As a result, a given flip of heads is more likely to be followed by tails than by another heads.

 

Isn't this similar to what the researched said about players a few years ago?  That after a make, the next shot was more likely to be a miss?

Jul 25, 2017 2:55pm
nuraman00
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So I think both @dane's article, and the article in the OP, are saying something similar.  When looking at whether there were consecutive makes before hand, if there were (3 or more makes), then the next shot is a make?

 

Is that the conclusion of these articles?

Jul 25, 2017 7:00pm
ClipperSisyphus
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Dyce wrote:

MadFlabby wrote:

I only clicked because I thought i was going to see a hot chick.  I don't give a shit about the Warriors or Heat.

How do you post the actual video, rather than the link, in the thread?

 

Jul 26, 2017 10:54am
nuraman00
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For me, going to the video, and getting the "share" link, then pasting it, used to work.  That's how I'd embed the videos.

 

But that method seemed to stop working 1-2 years ago for this forum.

 

So yes, I too am interested in knowing the current way to embed videos.

Jul 26, 2017 11:20am
MadFlabby
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ClipperSisyphus wrote:

Dyce wrote:

MadFlabby wrote:

I only clicked because I thought i was going to see a hot chick.  I don't give a shit about the Warriors or Heat.

How do you post the actual video, rather than the link, in the thread?

 

 

Good looking out!